Early projections indicate a 2026 Social Security COLA of about 2.8%, driven by the third-quarter CPI-W inflation index.
If this holds, the increase will be applied to checks paid starting January 2026 after the official announcement in October 2025. For the average retired-worker benefit near $2,000 per month, a 2.8% adjustment equals roughly +$56 per month before deductions.
Why Medicare Could Offset Your Raise
Most beneficiaries have Medicare Part B premiums deducted from their Social Security checks.
Separate forecasts suggest the standard Part B premium in 2026 could land in the low $200s per month, up by roughly $15–$25 from 2025.
That means a large slice of your COLA may be absorbed by healthcare costs, especially for those who also pay IRMAA (income-related surcharges).
The hold harmless rule prevents many beneficiaries from seeing their net Social Security check fall when Part B rises, but it doesn’t protect everyone (e.g., new enrollees, higher-income retirees paying IRMAA, or those not having Part B withheld from Social Security).
Key Dates To Know
- Mid-October 2025: Official 2026 COLA announcement (after the September CPI-W reading).
- January 2026: New COLA and Medicare amounts take effect on payments.
- Fall Open Enrollment (Oct–Dec 2025): Time to review plan options, drug formularies, and supplemental coverage.
Snapshot- Potential Impact On A Typical Retiree
| Item | 2025 (Baseline) | 2026 (Illustrative) | Change | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Monthly Benefit | $2,000 | $2,056 | +$56 | 2.8% COLA example |
| Part B Premium (standard) | $180–$190 | Low $200s | +$15–$25 | Range reflects common projections |
| Net Change After Part B | — | — | +$31–$41 | $56 COLA minus $15–$25 premium rise |
| IRMAA (if applicable) | Varies | Varies (Likely Higher) | — | Higher-income retirees may net less |
Figures above are rounded, illustrative ranges to help you estimate your own outcome. Plug in your exact numbers for precision.
How To Estimate Your 2026 Take-Home
- Locate Your Current Gross Benefit. Use your 2025 award letter or “My Social Security” account.
- Apply 2.8%. Multiply by 1.028 to estimate your gross 2026 amount.
- Subtract Your Expected Part B. Use the standard premium (projected low $200s) unless you pay IRMAA or have a different arrangement.
- Check Hold Harmless. If you’re protected, your net check shouldn’t drop, but your raise could be partially or fully offset.
Planning Tips Before January
- Budget Conservatively. Treat 2.8% as a working estimate until the official number is released.
- Manage IRMAA Risk. Watch MAGI from two years prior (capital gains, RMDs, Roth conversions) that can push you into higher Medicare brackets.
- Compare Coverage. During open enrollment, review Medigap vs. Medicare Advantage, formularies, and out-of-pocket caps to control healthcare costs.
- Revisit Withholding & Taxes. A higher gross benefit can change your taxable Social Security and state tax exposure.
A 2026 COLA near 2.8% should lift monthly benefits, but a notable Part B premium increase—plus possible IRMAA surcharges—could erase a big chunk of that raise.
Use the steps above to estimate your net 2026 payment, compare Medicare options during open enrollment, and plan your budget so January’s check doesn’t surprise you.
FAQs
When Will The 2026 COLA Be Announced?
Mid-October 2025, after the September CPI-W data is finalized. Payments with the new COLA start in January 2026.
How Much Will My Check Actually Increase?
If you get $2,000 now and the COLA is 2.8%, your gross adds ~$56/month. After a $15–$25 Part B increase, the net gain might be ~$31–$41 (before any IRMAA).
Could My Check Go Down?
If you’re covered by hold harmless, your net check shouldn’t decrease due to a Part B hike. However, new enrollees, IRMAA payers, and others not protected could see less favorable outcomes.