America’s Social Security checks are set to shift soon, and October 15 is the key date to circle.
That’s when the inflation data used to set next year’s Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) is finalized, and it’s also the first day of Medicare Open Enrollment.
Together, these two events can change both your gross benefit (via COLA) and your net deposit (after Medicare premiums and plan choices).
Why October 15 Matters
The government calculates COLA using the CPI-W (Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers) average for July, August, and September compared with the same months a year earlier.
When the September data posts on October 15, the Social Security Administration typically confirms the next year’s COLA shortly after.
That percentage increase will apply to benefits paid starting January 2026.
How The COLA Is Calculated
- Measure used: CPI-W (not CPI-U).
- Months that count: July–September each year.
- Formula (simple view): Average CPI-W (Jul–Sep this year) ÷ Average CPI-W (Jul–Sep last year) − 1 = COLA %.
- Effective date: Applied to January benefits (received in January for SSI and in January/February cycle for retirement/disability depending on your schedule).
What The 2026 Increase Could Look Like
Most independent outlooks expect a modest, low-single-digit COLA for 2026 (often discussed in the 2–3% range).
The actual number can be a little higher or lower depending on September inflation.
Your personal raise is applied to your current benefit amount, so two people will see different dollar increases even if the percentage is the same.
Example Monthly Impact (Illustrative Scenarios)
Below is a simple guide to visualize potential changes. These are examples, not official figures.
| Current Monthly Benefit | +2.5% Scenario | New Amount | +3.0% Scenario | New Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1,200 | +$30.00 | $1,230.00 | +$36.00 | $1,236.00 |
| $1,800 | +$45.00 | $1,845.00 | +$54.00 | $1,854.00 |
| $2,000 | +$50.00 | $2,050.00 | +$60.00 | $2,060.00 |
| $2,500 | +$62.50 | $2,562.50 | +$75.00 | $2,575.00 |
| $3,000 | +$75.00 | $3,075.00 | +$90.00 | $3,090.00 |
Tip: Multiply your current benefit by the COLA % to estimate your raise. Example: $2,000 × 0.03 = $60 increase.
Who Gets Paid On October 15
If your birthday falls on the 11th–20th, your retirement or disability benefit is scheduled for the third Wednesday each month.
In October 2025, the third Wednesday is October 15. That payment still reflects 2025 rates.
The new COLA shows up with January 2026 benefits (and then on your normal weekday payment).
Medicare And Your Net Deposit
Medicare Open Enrollment runs October 15–December 7. Changing (or keeping) your Medicare Advantage or Part D plan—and any update to Part B premiums—will affect how much is deducted from your Social Security check.
Even if COLA raises your gross benefit, a higher Part B premium or plan change could reduce your net deposit. Review your premium, drug formulary, and out-of-pocket costs before December 7.
Action Steps Before The Announcement
- Mark October 15: Check the official COLA percentage once it’s announced.
- Estimate your raise: Apply the COLA % to your current benefit to see your 2026 amount.
- Review Medicare options: Compare premiums and coverage so your net deposit isn’t a surprise in January.
- Update “my Social Security”: Ensure your direct deposit and mailing address are current.
October 15 is the hinge point for Social Security recipients.
The finalized CPI-W data locks in your 2026 COLA, and Medicare Open Enrollment begins the same day—two levers that determine both your gross raise and take-home deposit.
Use the examples above to estimate your increase, compare Medicare plans carefully, and make any updates in your my Social Security account so your January 2026 payment arrives exactly as you expect.
FAQs
Will My October 15 Payment Include The New COLA?
No. October payments still reflect 2025 rates. The COLA applies to January 2026 benefits.
I’m On SSI—When Do I See The Increase?
SSI users typically see the COLA in their January payment. Retirement and disability benefits reflect the new rate with the first 2026 checks on each person’s usual schedule.
Why Might My Net Check Be Smaller Even If COLA Goes Up?
Your gross benefit increases with COLA, but Medicare Part B/Part D premiums or a plan you select during Open Enrollment can change your deductions, affecting the net amount deposited.